Electability Redux

In casual debates about the Democratic nomination, I have claimed that there are two movements in the general election that would make Obama more competitive than Clinton. One is independents - I suspect that Obama has more appeal for independents than McCain does, but even if that's not true, it seems to me Clinton has the least appeal of the three. The second is right wing apathy. It seems social conservatives and talk radio conservatives would disproportionately stay at home on an Obama vs. McCain election day; not so if it's Clinton vs McCain - she has a gift for mobilizing those groups.

But it occurred to me this evening that a third movement would break McCain's way if Clinton wins, and that's Obama disillusionment. While most Hillary voters would still vote for Obama if he's the nominee, I am not sure the opposite is completely true. I doubt very much that current Obama supporters would vote for McCain, but I think there are a great many, particularly among the newly engaged supporters that have been driving his success, who would not vote at all.

I don't think this should be construed as either an ultimatum or a tantrum, and I don't think it has anything to do with Hillary hatred. It's just that the Obama movement is conditioned upon there being an Obama. He may be able to marshal the movement without being the nominee, but I like the Dems' chances better with him at the top of the ticket. (Oh yeah, fourth consideration: Congress.)