The Treason of the Hawks

A great post by Stephen Walt on the tough choices ahead for Israel.

What Walt doesn't say (though probably knows) is that there is virtually zero chance Netanyahu will come to his senses about the desirability of a two-state solution. This is not necessarily because Netanyahu is unable to recognize the virtue of a two-state solution when compared with the other options. Rather, his inclination towards an apartheid-style solution has much to do with the nature of domestic politics and Israeli elections, which make it virtually impossible for a sitting Prime Minister to get serious about pursuing a two-state peace with the Palestinians. Israel has an electoral system based on proportional representation that makes it much easier for smaller and more radical niche parties to break up governing coalitions. A rightward shift of even a small minority of the Israeli electorate can result in meaningful constraints on a Prime Minister interested in making peace. And it seems as though the Israeli electorate has, indeed, shifted rightward in recent years.

The Israeli style system stands in sharp contrast to the American electoral system, which is called first-past-the-post. As we saw today with the defection of Arlen Specter to the Democratic party, our system does not accommodate political parties that cater to citizens with fringe beliefs (either right of left). With Specter now a Democrat, the far-right dominated Republican Party finds itself in the political wilderness and facing a filibuster-proof Senate.

Neither electoral system is perfect. But a first-past-the-post system is highly desirable when a policy decision needs to be made that will be vehemently opposed by a small but significant minority of the electorate--as is the case today in Israel. Given the Israeli proportional electoral system, I'm not sure how a two-state solution is possible without Obama basically forcing it upon an Israeli government by threatening to dismantle the American-Israeli special relationship. I highly doubt that will happen, at least not until an Obama second term. Let's hope that if and when Obama does win a second term, the two-state option is still a viable possibility.