Georgia, Russia, Iran…Afghanistan (Obama Saves the World)

My favorite punching bag is back in the news! Disgusted citizens of Georgia have taken to the streets for a sixth straight day, demanding the resignation of Mikheil Saakashvili, president of Georgia and professional character assassin. Facing a rather pathetic and divided opposition political establishment, Saakashvili will likely stay in power for a while longer, although I highly doubt he will make it all the way to 2013 when his term officially expires. One protester pithily described Saakashvili's political predicament thusly: “Georgians are proud people, and we cannot stand this humiliation. In any country, a leader who loses a war, resigns. We need to make him understand that.” There are very few base-truths in politics. The idea that "if you lose a war that you start, you're days in power are numbered" is definitely one of them.

But the Saakashvili story is a mere sideshow these days. The real news is being made in US-Russian relations. With his “reset button” campaign, Obama has indicated that an improved relationship with Russia is a top priority. Georgia, meanwhile, will likely get sold down the river during this thawing process, and its hopes of joining NATO will be dashed. This may not be a terrible thing for Georgia, given how poorly Saakashvili’s hyper-nationalist, militantly pro-Western/anti-Russian stance has served the country.

Interestingly enough, the thawing of US-Russian relations is, in turn, its own sideshow. The grade-A, top-tier, supersize-me foreign policy action is, of course, in the Middle East. One of the main reasons Obama wants to hit the reset button with Russia is that he needs as much Russian backing as possible when he sits down at the table with Iran to discuss the nuclear issue. There are clear signs (see: U.S. May Drop Key Condition for Iran Talks) that a long term negotiating process between Iran and the US is about to begin. And make no mistake: a grand bargain-type agreement is possible. Roger Cohen, who has been on fire with a number of excellent columns about Iran (here, here, and here), offers up the following as a possible compromise:

Iran ceases military support for Hamas and Hezbollah; adopts a “Malaysian” approach to Israel (nonrecognition and noninterference); agrees to work for stability in Iraq and Afghanistan; accepts intrusive International Atomic Energy Agency verification of a limited nuclear program for peaceful ends only; promises to fight Qaeda terrorism; commits to improving its human rights record.

The United States commits itself to the Islamic Republic’s security and endorses its pivotal regional role; accepts Iran’s right to operate a limited enrichment facility with several hundred centrifuges for research purposes; agrees to Iran’s acquiring a new nuclear power reactor from the French; promises to back Iran’s entry into the World Trade Organization; returns seized Iranian assets; lifts all sanctions; and notes past Iranian statements that it will endorse a two-state solution acceptable to the Palestinians.

Obama is making a huge bet that both Russia and Iran are not “revisionist powers”—that is, they are not interested, first and foremost, in transforming the world power structure to their singular advantage. He is betting that they are open to acting as respectable global citizens and are open to compromise. Many people believe the Russia-Georgia war was indicative of Russia’s expansionist ambitions. But I believe Russia’s deputy ambassador to NATO, Ivan Soltanovskiy, when he says the West should not overreact to Russia’s new found swagger: “There is a new sense of self-assurance in Russia, but don’t confuse it with aggressive nationalism. We see in the West a lot of mistrust of my country. But this is a self-confident Russia open to negotiation.” Iran’s willingness to play by the rules is much less obvious (Tom Friedman, for one, doesn't think Iran is serious), but Obama is absolutely right to take the chance. In fact, I think it will prove more difficult to keep Israel from doing something stupid, like bomb Iranian nuclear facilities, than it will be to entice the “mad mullahs” to negotiate in good faith.

And finally, to connect the dots just one step further, in two years when a grand bargain is reached with Iran and the Georgia-Russia war is long forgotten, Obama can leverage up the support from those two former enemies and focus all his energy on the absolute primo #1 problem of our time (which will undoubtedly still be a mess): Pakistan-Afghanistan. With Russian and Iranian cooperation, he just might be able to pull off something of a victory there as well.