It is possible that McCain has a little momentum right now, though I have no idea how. The national tracking polls have been tightening a bit over the last 2 days or s0. Check out the Talking Points Memo composite national poll when it comes out later today. If it's tighter than it was yesterday, that's 3 or 4 straight days of movement in that direction, and a cause for some concern, if you ask me.
Update, 5:25 pm. Well, good news on that front. The 3-5 days of movement in one direction is over, with Obama going up slightly in today's TPM track composite. What does this mean? Nothing. But another day of movement in the same direction would have begun to have meant something.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
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Not sure I agree that it would have meant much-- the rate of movement (even if you give it another day and only average the days in which Mccain moved up) would have had to accelerate almost unimaginably to catch Mccain up. That and the states are still basically locked up as necessary.
But James, I would argue that one major theme of this endless process has been that momentum on election day matters, and can make a liar out of the polls. Of course, things are looking good, but we should absolutely not be doing a dance in the endzone right now, not for a second.
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