Sunday, August 31, 2008

Palin, Take Two

I have a slightly different take on the Palin nomination. I think that it was actually a really good choice for McCain, under the circumstances. The other top choices (Romney, Pawlenty, Ridge) do not have much upside from a Republican perspective, and McCain needs upside because he is losing. Palin is a risk, but she shakes things up and could help McCain in key states. I don’t think she will have much pull with disaffected Clinton supporters. But I do worry about her “hockey mom” appeal in Minnesota and Colorado. I think that persona has real traction amongst independent female voters in those states. The evangelical angle also helps a lot in Colorado, some parts of Virginia, and with the Republican base everywhere. After reading this article in the New Yorker, I thought for a second that Colorado could actually go to Obama. But now I think that is highly unlikely.

I also think Palin’s lack of experience is really not that big of an issue for most voters because McCain’s age is not that big of an issue for most voters. The chances of McCain dying in office are not large. And would the country really fall apart if Palin were in the Oval Office? Probably not. The risk for Republicans is that Biden trounces Palin on foreign policy issues in the debate. Then experience would come into play. But if she holds her own, I think experience is not a deal-breaker and she turns out to be a good pick.

I was feeling pretty confident about a solid Obama victory after the impressive Democratic National Convention. Now I'm feeling like it’ll be a barn burner.

4 comments:

Standing Eagle said...

My dear fellow,

Obama will win Colorado. Alaska and Colorado have little in common, except outdoor sports. Sports are not everything.

380 EVs for Obama-Biden. Palin was McCain's Look-Over-Here maneuver, a flea-flicker hook-and-ladder from an offense down 31-0 late in the third quarter.

Game's not over, but how you gonna run the flea-flicker hook-and-ladder if you can't get three yards up the gut, ever?

Desperation play by an obviously desperate campaign. Voters see it for what it is, especially in this gender-obsessed media climate.

See Frank Rich today (never thought I'd bother to say that) for more.

Jim vdH

PS. Don't get me wrong: when nothing is working and it's 3rd-and-21, that IS the time for the flea-flicker hook-and-ladder. McCain made a politically smart choice that will do him no good, and in a week will begin to make him the laughingstock posterity will remember him as.

Anonymous said...

It may be unlikely, but the thought of McCain dying in his first or second term, and this woman taking over for the remainder, seems like it could be cataclysmic given the things she would block or try to pass, and the many dangerous foreign affairs issues facing America in the coming years.

McCain might as well have chosen Condi Rice, at least she has experience.

Anonymous said...

Guys! you are seriously in need of a female viewpoint here. How did this woman win Alaska? Not female votes, I assure you. It's because she's hot! Wait, you say. Men won't be fooled. Really? You sure about that?
And, she's the first bona fide working class candidate in a long time. Not to mention the born-again's who make up, what is it, 30% of the electorate?
You're not worried? I AM.

A female relative of Peter's. Close female relative.

Peter said...

anonymous,
It may be somewhat taboo to say it, but you are right to point out that being hot is most definitely a plus in politics. And Palin is pretty darn hot. That said, talking about someone's looks opens the door to a potentially explosive and unproductive debate with accusations of sexism flying left and right--especially if a man is the one talking about looks. But thanks for saying out loud what we have all been thinking--that Palin's good looks have helped her in her political career. How much it has helped her is open to debate.