My father just suggested to me that Barack might need Hillary on the ticket, and I realized something – I think I agree with him.
Now, regular Pickle readers would be well justified in offering a mammoth Wait A Minute right now. For those who are new to the Pickle, welcome. If you want to understand what the regulars are so aghast about, see my post of May 31st, in which I wrote, and meant “I don’t trust her. I don’t want her anywhere near the ticket.”
I need to work this through a bit more, but when my father made that suggestion, it offered some shape to a vague dark cloud that had been gathering in my sense of this race. The Obama movement is powerful, large, meaningful, and grown from a real and, I think, perceptive conception of what we need in American democracy today. A dash of reason, a sprinkling of vision, a progressive heart, and a Reaganesque ability to talk about it. But you know what? I haven’t seen one poll – not one – that puts Obama over 50%. He’s almost always ahead of McCain, but he’s never at 50%.
With 3 months to go, I think there are possibilities that must be countenanced: that he has a ceiling, because people like to know what they are going to get; that small c conservatives plus big C conservatives plus good old fashioned racists might get McCain over the top; that people don’t want to vote for someone with whom they are infatuated; or (and I’ve really been a huge doubter about this) that too many Democrats and Independents – people he needs in his coalition – are embittered by the primary. And then you realize this: Hillary helps him with all of those. She is a measure of security, of familiarity, and maybe she puts the pieces back together.
One thing she isn’t, of course, is the Obama brand. It’s hard to find anyone who fits the mold of Washington status quo more than Hillary Clinton. But I have to be honest. I’m worried. I admit I haven’t quite given voice to my worry – hopefully I’ll be able to share that with Pickle Nation soon; or, better, hopefully I’ll be able to expose my worry as typical over-the-shoulder looking. But for now, I’m surprised to say it. I think Obama might need the kind of help that Hillary can provide.
That being said, my money is on Tim Kaine.
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
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6 comments:
A very good and well thought out post. Scary and unhappy for those of us who would prefer that Bill Clinton go back to being a humanitarian super star rather than the tired political hack that he is, but very good points across the board here.
It's not about her. It's about HIM. Bill. He's the problem, the rub, the issue. You pick her, you get him.
I'd pick Biden.
UD
Dan, I absolutely agree with you and your father. The Obama brand is already a bit tattered, so I don't see a big downside in picking Hillary on that front. She would help him win and she would be a great VP to boot. And she'd be the first female VP--another big plus in my book.
But as anonymous says, Bill is the issue. Because of him, and because of lingering hard feelings from the primary, I think she has virtually no change of being the pick. It's too bad.
Brief correction of the record... Dan's father was quoting David Gergen, who spoke last night on Martha's Vineyard, and who said he thinks Obama needs to "seriously reconsider" Hillary as VP candidate. Gergen was direct (and extensive -- he talked for an hour) in listing reasons for Obama to run scared, and, as I heard him, he came awfully close to predicting a McCain win.
Gergen said that the next president is facing the toughest set of American policy problems since FDR, and, with drama uncharacteristic of him, he offered that the country is at a "critical inflection point" (Andy Grove's term) where, without superb leadership "we are going down." His foremost requirements of the next president are two: "a core of steel" and a capacity to build coalitions of unprecedented breadth. He sees selecting Hillary as good on both counts: she brings steel -- evidenced in her campaign, and choosing her would be a big move on coalition-building with some disaffected sectors, beginning, crucially, by healing the party.
He strongly emphasized the need for Obama to signal: "I bring change, but you can trust that I also bring confidence, safety, and a form of stability." The Republican strategy is to make the election a referendum, not on issues, but on Obama -- elite, non-substantive, and unsafe. It isd to turn Obama's strengths ninto weaknesses: "there he goes again..." Obama, said Gergen, should learn from the successes of FDR and Reagan, who focused their messages on "kicking down the door of the old regime," which Gergen does not yet see Obama doing.
On Bill, Gergen offered the view that the very best leaders turn others' weaknesses into strengths, and take good advantage of the best people have to offer. (He quoted "Team of Rivals.") He thinks Obama could mitigate the toll of Bill's difficult behaviors, and build on his strengths as a useful asset for both campaigning and, even more important, governing.
One final point: Gergen feels that Obama has not learned yet how to use surrogates correctly, to take the lightening strikes, deliver messages, and off-load some of the burdens. "He cannot carry this alone." "He is bone-tired." Gergen's respect for (awe of) Obama came through, but he listed a few such learning points for his campaign to master soon and urgently.
Gergen's overall analysis was masterful and, to me, bone-chilling. His ray of light: no matter who wins, this election has already changed America's image and political landscape forever. I guess that's true, but I have trouble feeling that that's the most important point right now.
I can't believe it, but I actually find myself wholeheartedly agreeing with this. My main concern two months ago - that Hillary would, as Dan says, not fit with the "Obama brand" - is no longer relevant, because Obama has worked hard to destroy his own brand (or, to put it more charitably, to "rebrand" himself), and I don't see how Hilary doesn't mesh with the "new" Obama.
Excellent, thanks don, for that great and fascinating summary. Gergen: he says so much, some of it must be right...
anonymous, I mostly agree. Mostly, Bill is really the issue.
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