Delegate Math, infinity

Estimates of the current delegate count vary, but less so now that we’re nearing the end. By my count, Obama has 1485 pledged delegates, and Clinton has 1334. That’s pretty precise. The superdelegate count is a bit squishier, but the AP count of 261 for Clinton and 240 for Barack looks about right. So if you add those together, you get 1725 for Barack, and 1595 for Clinton.

Now let’s see what happens if we award the remaining pledged delegates in some sort of reasonable fashion. Let’s guess that the voting in remaining states will go as follows, with Barack’s # first:

NC – 54-46
IN – 46-54
WV – 44-56
OR – 54-46
KY – 44-56
MT – 55-45
SD – 55-45
Puerto Rico – 40-60

If it goes like that, I calculate that she’ll get 208 more pledged delegates, and he’ll get 196. She might do better than that, and he might do worse, but at this point it really just doesn’t matter very much, from a pledged delegate math perspective, because of our system for apportionment and the fact that, frankly, there aren’t that many delegates left to award.

So if she gets 208 and he gets 196, then the total, counting all the pledged delegates and the superdelegates who have announced their intentions so far, is 1921 to 1803. There are 294 superdelegates who still haven’t said what they plan to do. If those above numbers are correct, then Obama needs 100 of the remaining 300. That’s the figure to be focused on right now.

There are a few caveats: I’m missing 4 delegates somewhere (those numbers add up to 4044, not 4048), I don’t know what we’re supposed to do with John Edwards’ 26 pledged delegates, and Michigan and Florida still loom in the shadows. If you take out those 30 (4+26), the magic number becomes 2010, and he needs 89.

Now, would it surprise anyone if Barack announced 2025 on May 20th or June 8th, and then Hillary said “Nope, those superdelegates won’t cast their votes until August, so I have until then to persuade them?” Maybe someone. Note that Gallup has Hillary up nationally today for the first time in a while. I’m far, far more anxious than I was a few days ago. But what the numbers say now is that if he can find just a little wind in his sails again at some point in the next few weeks, he should be able to get to that magic number as soon as the voting winds down. He does need to turn things around after a few bad days, but 89 out of 294 still isn’t that heavy a lift.