Back to Work

With 3 days to go until the resumption of festivities, I though now might be a good time to foolishly put a stake in the ground about what is going to happen over the next few weeks of the Democratic nominating contest, so I can continue to undermine your confidence in my predictive abilities or the notion that six years of political work has taught me anything about who wins elections and how they win them.

I suggest that it is very likely that this campaign has entered its final three weeks. Up until now, a decisive minority of superdelegates has been content to postpone a public declaration of intent until everyone has had a chance to vote – until the end of the first week of June. In what was undoubtedly the finest moment of his tenure as DNC Chair, Dr. Dean proposed the end of voting as a deadline for superdelegates to make their choices known. That made sense until Wednesday night’s debate, when we learned that this process has irrevocably passed the point of usefulness. There is finally literally nothing to talk about, leaving only campaign gossip, and an antsy stable of superdelegates that is just waiting to stampede. An Obama win in PA would certainly set one off. Maybe an Obama almost-win would.

But after May 6th, I really do think the pressure to concede will finally force her out. She really has no way to win the pledged delegate count at this point, but just for the sake of argument, let’s have a look. As always, counts vary, but by my estimation, he is up 1410 to 1251 right now. If she wins PA by 10, he wins NC by 10, and she wins Indiana by 4, he would be up roughly 1578 to 1428. That’s a 150-delegate lead, with only 217 left to be awarded. If we had a winner-take-all system of delegate apportionment, it would be mathematically possible for her to overtake him. But then, if we had a winner-take-all system of delegate apportionment, we, like the Republicans, would have a nominee by now.

So he has the pledged count, and he has the state count; he has won more pledged delegate than her in 31 of 44 contests – an emphatic margin. That being the situation, her only viable strategy since the week of Texas and Ohio has been to create enough momentum for herself and doubt about Barack to give the superdelegates cover to swing it to her, on the premise that she is more elect-able.

Without that momentum, there is no cover. Without a big win in IN and at least a surging draw in NC, there is no momentum. Without a crushing blow in PA, there is no surge in NC. And SurveyUSA had a poll out Friday showing Obama up 5 in Indiana. Let the stampede begin.


PS: Pickle Nation (including Pickle Nation co-prez Luvh) was not in love with my blithe assertion in a recent post that "Liberals are Elitists." Fair. For a sample of complaints and my response, check out the comments on that post, "Enough Outta You."