I've just done a quick back of the envelope - which counties have how much left to report, etc - and I my guess is that Clinton is going to win Indiana by more than 2 but less than 4. That's pretty good. In fact, that's damn good. The constructed narrative in the run-up to this was "who will win bigger?" We do have an emphatic answer to that question.
And for anyone who say Donna Brazile tear Paul Begala a new [redacted because sometimes, though very rarely, our parents read the Pickle], there's at least one superD who seems to have had enough.
Update 9:30: 30 minutes ago, at 9:00, she had a 50K vote lead. Now it's 40K, at 9:30. There's probably another 10K votes of margin for him in Indianapolis and Bloomington. I don't know how many people are in Lake County, but he should win there, and they haven't started reporting, for some reason. It's very unlikely there are 30K votes of margin there for him, so she'll almost definitely win, but this is very close. A near tie. A win for the guy who was supposed to lose.
Update 9:40: Now hang on a second. There are about 900K people in Marion county (Indianapolis), and there are 500K people in Lake County. He's going to have to make up about 30K votes in Lake County. If he gets the kind of margin in Lake that he did in Marion, he can win Indiana. I don't know enough about Lake County to speculate, but I doubt he'll win it 2-1, like Indianapolis. It looks closer and closer. I'd still bet on her, but it is tight tight tight.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
3 comments:
Commenting at 12:27, the margin is down to 20,000 votes. If Obama maintains his margin in Lake County (28% of precincts reporting as I write this), my own back-of-the-envelope calculations say he should win Indian by 5,000 votes. If this happens, is there really any way Clinton can stay in the race, having just hours before given a smarmy, condescending victory speech, and having repeated and emphasized the idea that Indiana is somehow a "tie-breaker?" I hope the answer is no.
The margin dropped. The primary was decided by 20,000. Lots of drama, ultimately anticlimactic.
It turns out that that first group of precincts to report in Lake County was the city of Gary itself, so that margin would have been tough to hold up. Nevertheless, I'd say that Clinton campaign death watch is on...again...
Post a Comment